The only workaround that I've found is to run the steps manually. First, publish from ArcMap, and watch it fail. Dismiss the publisher window and tell it to save the draft SD. Run the geoprocessing tool Stage Service to convert the draft to a real SD, then run the Upload SD tool. I've used this approach successfully with both AGOL and Portal. That said, in the last week, even this option isn't working for AGOL. I get a service, but missing the geometry, only a related table is accessible. When I try with Portal, I get a good service. Still experimenting and will install 10.3.1 today.
... View more