Apparently it is missing a jobId (whatever that is.)
You can find out more details by examining the script
C:\ArcPro\bin\Python\envs\arcgispro-py3\lib\site-packages\arcgis\gis\__init__.py
the def in question is
def _check_publish_status(self, ret, folder):
its help says...
Internal method to check the status of a publishing job.
:param ret: Dictionary representing the result of a publish REST call. This dict should contain the
`serviceItemId` and `jobId` of the publishing job
:param folder: obtained from self.ownerFolder
and it failed to pass on line 4485 returning the error message on 4519... raise Exception("No job id")
So if you know what a job id is...