Probability Based Analysis?

[ArchTim]

I'm on Arc GIS Pro - and I'm looking for a tool that can create a layer that includes probabilities. At a fundamental level I would like to create H3 Hexagons and have a model assign probabilities of finding an object within those hexagons based on specific spatial criteria. I only know a general area of  where the object is so it would be helpful to be able to update the probabilities based on not finding the object within a hexagon. 

Does the software have any capability for this type of analysis? 

Thank you so much for your help!

[DanPatterson]

Tessalations are available in

Generate Tessellation (Data Management)—ArcGIS Pro | Documentation

Have you ruled out what is available in the Spatial Statistics extension?

Some specific examples may guide further suggestions.

An overview of the Spatial Statistics toolbox—ArcGIS Pro | Documentation

[georgerobert]

I’ve dealt with this in ArcGIS Pro before, and yeah, you can build H3-style hex grids and run a probability model on them. Using Spatial Analyst and ModelBuilder, you can update probabilities as you clear each hexagon, which really helps narrow down search zones. It takes a little setup, but it definitely works kind of like how APK makes editing easier once you know the tools. Hope this helps, it saved me a lot of time too.