Exploring Data & Selecting a Model

Discussion created by m.cain on May 7, 2011
Latest reply on Jun 28, 2011 by m.cain
I have been through ESRI's tutorials on the use of their Geostatistical Analyst tool and have done some basic online search, but am still not clear on understanding the Explore Data tools (particularly the Trend Analysis, and the Semivariogram Cloud) so as to select the appropriate model parameters.

1) Histogram only showed close to normal distribution with Log transformation
2) Normal QQPlot only showed points lying close to line with Log transformation
3) Trend Analysis?
4) Semivariogram Cloud?

How then to apply these "revelations" to a Kriging interpolation?

Without really understanding what I am doing, I appear to have gotten the best RMS value (423.6) with a Radial Basis Function.

I read from an external source that I should aim for the following:
- Mean prediction error --> close to 0
- RMS value --> smaller the better
- RMS standardized --> close to 1

My models are not looking good.

I have attached my basic outputs from Exploring the Data in the hopes someone might be able to help me understand this better. Note: I actually want to understand the decision making process here so would greatly appreciate your experience and advice