You can do that with model builder,
Just add two fields in U.S. county centroid Feature class, the first field you will calculate a certain distance (weighted by the square of the inverse distance).the second field for average temperature values but you will let that field Null
then run buffer tool using the distance field.
select by location for all temperature point observations within each polygon
use summary statistics tool to get average
get this value and make field calculate in the second field that you created
you will use iteration selection, to do that for each polygon buffer.
thanks