Modelling disease in plantation

[AnggiKusumawardani]

Hi all

Having read about land use modeler, I have some idea to apply those simulation in different ways.

I have temporal data (10 years) about oil palm trees which infected by disease from 1st year until 10th years. The data consist of points (vector) of each individual tree in one block (about 20 hectares) and each of tree has attribute containing when the tree got infected for the first time by the disease.

What I want to ask is,

is it possible to make simulation about the disease spread since 1st year until 10th year via ArcGIS?

If yes, what extension or methods should I try?

Can I get the equation from the disease spread for 10 years so that I can make prediction for another 10 years ahead?

Any thought and useful comments will be much appreciated.

[XanderBakker]

I would probably start by exploring the data and visualize it cumulative using a field containing the year of the first infection.  Enable time on your layer and display the data cumulatively with the time slider. See: About visualizing temporal data—Help | ArcGIS for Desktop 

If you detect an infection area that grows through the years, you could generate a Convex Hull area for each year, using Minimum Bounding Geometry—Help | ArcGIS for Desktop .

If the shape turns out to big, or there area multiple infection sources, you may want to consider an interpolation using 0 for non infected trees and 1 for infected trees. See: An overview of the Interpolation toolset—Help | ArcGIS for Desktop

[AnggiKusumawardani]

Hi Xander Bakker​

Noted, I will try first what you suggested and inform whether it would work!