I think the easiest way to do this, is to simply export the "best fit surface" from Matlab as a physical entity, that is, as a raster or grid stored to disk in a format ArcGIS for Desktop can read, instead of trying to re-create the surface in ArcGIS based on the formulas alone.
Although ArcGIS has some new features in the direction of using parameterized, formula based, raster processing for display purposes (see "What are the functions used by a raster or mosaic dataset?"), ArcGIS still heavily relies on physical datasets for processing and analysis.
You might be able to use the display functionality to "fake" a Matlab "best fit surface", but I have to little experience using this new funtionality of ArcGIS to guide you or to tell you if it is actually possible (I guess it might involve first using a Constant function to create some level surface, than apply your Matlab fit). Maybe someone else with more experience using this could guide you.
OK, I guess the problem I'm having is actually exporting the curve. Do you know how to do this if i'm using cftool?
This is starting to become more of a Matlab question, than ArcGIS, you might consider posting on a MathWorks forum (*). Although I have worked with a number of hydrologists using Matlab some 15 years ago, that is way to long ago to guide you.
(*) just noticed you already did this 😉
Ha yep! Thought it might be a bit of a long shot on here...no matter, will try MathWorks again.
Cheers