Hi Paul,
I don't know exactly how SLE determines if a label overlaps the polygon, but I think it is some kind of vector test (Maplex rasterises the label and the feature and looks for overlaps between the two). In any case, the test will fail if the label cannot be placed within the polygon. I don't know if this includes the boundary/casing, but it should be quite easy to find out by setting the boundary width to a large value and alter the font size until you have a label that fits.
It won't be possible to tell the label engine to place your label, via a formula or otherwise. As possible workarounds, you will have to either allow the label to place outside or reduce the font size.
What is the problem you have with Maplex? Is it licensing? Or is there a bug?