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Best Way to Calculate Millennials in 5-Years

RobinDiSalvo1

In 2019 Millennials will turn 23 - 38 years old. In the next five years they will be 28-43. If I want to see the five-year projection of the total millennials in 2024, do I use the same age group 23-38 in 2019 for 2024 or do I use the age group 28-43 in 2024? I noticed when I did the latter the total projection number was lower than the 2019 number.

2019 Ages 23-38

2024 Ages 23-38

2024 Ages 28-43

Which 2024 projection age is the correct one to use?

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Anonymous User

Hi Robin,

Thank you for your question.

They are a fixed age cohort so they need to be “aged” five years as well.

From Esri’s 2019 update databases, Millennials are defined as persons born between 1981 to 1998 (ages 21 thru 38). For the U.S., the 2019 estimate for this group is 81,653,325 persons. In 2024, this cohort covers ages 26 thru 43 and projected to increase to 83,995,682 persons.

Please let me know if you have other questions.

Regards, Alice

akavanagh@esri.com

800-292-2224

2019/2024 Esri Update Methodology

RobinDiSalvo1

Hi Alice,

I looked up what years define Millennials and they all cut off at 1996 not 1998. According to PEW Research<https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/01/17/where-millennials-end-and-generation-z-begins/> the Millennial generation was born between 1981 and 1996.

Robin DiSalvo

Market Research Analyst

TAMPA HILLSBOROUGH ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

O: 813.518.2652 I M: 813.431.4051

rdisalvo@tampaedc.com<mailto:rdisalvo@tampaedc.com>

Generations Defined by PEW Research Center.png

image001.jpg

Anonymous User

Thank you Robin for your feedback.

Below is information from our Data Development team.

Generations are a fuzzy concept and a topic of constant debate. The Baby Boom generation (1946 to 1964) is just about the only generation that is agreed upon. In the past five years or so there has been a convergence on the breaks for Generation X, now generally considered to be those born 1965 to 1980. Millennials, as a generation are certainly solidified, however the “final” birth years for the generation are still a moving target. The Census Bureau is trying to stay away from the subject all together, last identifying Millennials in 2015 as those born 1982 to 2000. The Brookings Institute has flipped on their definition more than once too, currently defining Millennials as 1981 – 1997.

Esri generational breaks are created around three main criteria. 1) Keeping the size of the generations roughly similar, between 16 and 19 years. 2) Capturing similar fertility patterns over the time ranges. 3) Creating distinct generations that identify with shared life experiences – especially those experiences when “coming of age.” Esri will continue to evaluate the consensus for Millennial age breaks in order to determine if we need to make adjustment for our own breaks. If the Esri breaks do not suit your particular needs you can always create custom variables from the single year of age data.

I hope this helps!

Alice

RobinDiSalvo1

Great explanation and so true! I am always asked this question.

Thank you so much for clarifying this. I really appreciate it!

Robin

Robin DiSalvo

Market Research Analyst

TAMPA HILLSBOROUGH ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

O: 813.518.2652 I M: 813.431.4051

rdisalvo@tampaedc.com<mailto:rdisalvo@tampaedc.com>

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