Hello forum community,

I am a graduate student charged with the task of exploring the potentiality of predicting archaeological "site" or more accurately artifact location based off of an existing archaeological site database as my thesis exercise. The task is to attempt to find any correlational relationships between the existing site location dependent variable and environmental indpendent variables. I have looked into various different logistic, multivariate, regression models but have been reading up on the relatively recently released tools of OLS and GWR in the Spatial Statistics toolbox. Needless to say I have begun working with the data using these regression tools but am quickly feeling a bit overwhelmed and fear spending a significant amount of time towards a goal that may not even be possible with this method.

I have watched the free web seminar a couple of times, have read;

The ESRI Guide to GIS Analysis, Volume 2

Mitchell, Andy. ESRI Press, 2005.

Geographically Weighted Regression: the analysis of spatially varying relationships

Fotheringham, Stewart A., Chris Brunsdon, and Martin Charlton. John Wiley & Sons, 2002.

And thought I was making progress however I am finding very little R-squared "goodness of fit" value in every attempt of analysis and am feeling as though I am spinning circles. This forum was suggested to me by the regional ESRI tech support as she too admitted as to knowing very little about the application. I have looked into attending an ESRI class "Performing Analysis with ArcGIS Desktop" which was suggested again after the webinar but before pulling the trigger on spending that kind of scratch I am hoping someone can shed some light as to whether I am barking up the wrong tree?

Could OLS and GWR successfully analyze the relationship between environmental (and perhaps other explanatory systemic behavioral) variables and archaelogical artifact locations? I vaguely recall in perhaps the webinar or perhaps Mitchell's chapter regarding this material the potentiality of success but again after early attempts just want to make sure before continuing the pursuit. I love the theory behind using local statistics to assess relationships on the dependent variable and the ability to formulate a model which can be later used to help predict unknown areas but at least with my own study have hit the preverbial wall.

Can anyone help?

Thanks- aspiring graduate school graduate

I am a graduate student charged with the task of exploring the potentiality of predicting archaeological "site" or more accurately artifact location based off of an existing archaeological site database as my thesis exercise. The task is to attempt to find any correlational relationships between the existing site location dependent variable and environmental indpendent variables. I have looked into various different logistic, multivariate, regression models but have been reading up on the relatively recently released tools of OLS and GWR in the Spatial Statistics toolbox. Needless to say I have begun working with the data using these regression tools but am quickly feeling a bit overwhelmed and fear spending a significant amount of time towards a goal that may not even be possible with this method.

I have watched the free web seminar a couple of times, have read;

The ESRI Guide to GIS Analysis, Volume 2

Mitchell, Andy. ESRI Press, 2005.

Geographically Weighted Regression: the analysis of spatially varying relationships

Fotheringham, Stewart A., Chris Brunsdon, and Martin Charlton. John Wiley & Sons, 2002.

And thought I was making progress however I am finding very little R-squared "goodness of fit" value in every attempt of analysis and am feeling as though I am spinning circles. This forum was suggested to me by the regional ESRI tech support as she too admitted as to knowing very little about the application. I have looked into attending an ESRI class "Performing Analysis with ArcGIS Desktop" which was suggested again after the webinar but before pulling the trigger on spending that kind of scratch I am hoping someone can shed some light as to whether I am barking up the wrong tree?

Could OLS and GWR successfully analyze the relationship between environmental (and perhaps other explanatory systemic behavioral) variables and archaelogical artifact locations? I vaguely recall in perhaps the webinar or perhaps Mitchell's chapter regarding this material the potentiality of success but again after early attempts just want to make sure before continuing the pursuit. I love the theory behind using local statistics to assess relationships on the dependent variable and the ability to formulate a model which can be later used to help predict unknown areas but at least with my own study have hit the preverbial wall.

Can anyone help?

Thanks- aspiring graduate school graduate

I want to start by saying that you are on the right track! I�??m glad you were able to watch the free web seminar on regression and hope it was helpful. The books you mention are also great resources for getting started with this kind of analysis.

Speaking from my own Master�??s thesis experience, the analysis process is rarely as easy as it seems in books and tutorials. The real world is complex, and the relationships that we see in our data are sometimes pretty unexpected. That being said, there are a number of techniques that we can use to help us try to find the best model possible. Before you give up on using OLS and GWR, make sure that you ask yourself a few questions. The answers to these questions could help you find a good model using OLS, or they may help you realize why OLS is not the right method to use. Either way, you will be one step closer to finding solutions to the task at hand.

I will post these strategies as 4 separate entries due to length constraints.

Lauren Rosenshein

Geoprocessing Product Engineer

ESRI | Redlands, CA