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Conflict prediction using land attributes

Question asked by cml1227 on Dec 4, 2016
Latest reply on Dec 4, 2016 by Dan_Patterson

I'm trying to build a model in ArcGIS to predict whether or not a certain land feature will have a conflict event. My data is set up as follows: I have a country divided up into ~700 polygons. Each polygon has a binary indicator to show whether it has had a conflict event (conflict=1) or not (conflict=0) in the past year. Each polygon feature also has many other attributes that I'd like to use for the prediction (e.g. land type, elevation, population, income, food security, etc.). I'd like to build a model using roughly 70% of the polygon features and then test the model's accuracy on the remaining 30%. I'm separately building a model in Python but I also wanted to use ArcGIS to take the spatial element of conflict into account.

 

What is the best tool in ArcGIS to do this? I've been looking at the Geostatistical Analyst toolbox but it seems like those models only do extrapolation / prediction using information from the outcome variable (and don't take other attributes about the feature into account). I also know I can use GWR to assess the impact of each predictor variable but I'm not sure if I can use that to predict conflict on a test set of data and measure the model's accuracy.

 

Any feedback would be greatly appreciated! Thank you!

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