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Emerging Hot Spot Analysis Neighborhood Time Step

Question asked by tmlandrum on Nov 22, 2016
Latest reply on Feb 9, 2017 by Dan_Patterson

When using the Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (from within the Space Time Pattern Mining Tools in ArcGIS Pro 1.3.1) on 10 years worth of inner city crime data, I notice that I get significantly different results when I change the Neighborhood Time Step. For instance, when I use 1 year as my Neighborhood Time Step, large areas are coded as Diminishing Hot Spots but when I use 2 years many of these spots change to Persistent Hot Spots. When I use 3 years, the entire area is coded as a Persistent Hot Spot (I also have a larger concentration of Intensifying Hot Spots). I am unsure of how to interpret these results. Any help in interpreting these results as well as guidance on how to choose and justify a time step interval would be appreciated. FYI, there has been an overall reduction in the occurrence of crimes from 2006 (232,577) to 2015 (182,349) although some neighborhoods/census tracts have seen an increase.