Post 2021Science Symposium Discussion Thread

[VictoriaPhillips1]

Hi all! Thanks for attending this year's Esri UC Science Symposium! Let's continue the discussion on biodiversity and precision conservation with Dr. Hamilton and Dr. @DawnWright ! Post your questions and comments in the thread below!

Link to Dr. Dawn Wright's presentation slides: https://esriurl.com/symposium21 

Link to Dr. Healy Hamilton's presentation slides: http://ow.ly/W7Ey50FIVyS

Link to Map of Biodiversity Importance: https://www.natureserve.org/conservation-tools/projects/map-biodiversity-importance?gclid=Cj0KCQjwub...

[VictoriaPhillips1 · Accepted solution]

Hi all! For those of you who asked questions in the chat at the Science Symposium, Healy Hamilton has now answered them! Below is a list of questions that were sent during the LIVE Science Symposium.

Hannah

Where does the need for the conservation of land and biodiversity meet the needs of humans to live and thrive in their environment? Increased wildland-urban interface is dangerous for humans and flora/fauna. Where do you draw the line?

The answer to this question is site specific and should be guided by a diversity of stakeholders that can access and understand the best available science. Examples like I gave at the symposium demonstrate that new spatial tools are available to develop the science that can guide conservation and land use decisions for imperiled species. 

Grace

How do you solve conflicts between the biodiversity protection and political policy?

When policy is guided by the best available science, we aspire that biodiversity protection goals are achievable and designed to reduce conflict wherever possible. Conflict resolution must be driven by those with jurisdictional responsibility over resources, and their stakeholders.

Anonymous

Are you considering microbial diversity as part of your assessments?

No, microbial diversity is not included in the assessments I discussed. It would be great to have enough information on microbial taxonomy and distribution to be able to include that ecologically important group.

Anonymous

How do you anticipate climate change impacting global biodiversity?

Actually the species habitat modeling process I described is exceptionally well set up to generate a diversity of scenarios about biodiversity distribution response to future climate conditions. We hope to leverage our modeling infrastructure to address that question using a suite of downscaled climate model projections. That approach can help us understand the ‘leading edge’ and the ‘losing edge’ of the climate envelopes for species and communities, which is invaluable information to have today for conservation planning for the future.

Anonymous

Since diversity data is often produced in areas where there are human disturbances and conflict--how do we account for that (or estimate that) to support initiatives like 30 x 30? Can we extrapolate info from areas we know into areas we haven't impacted as much?

Actually there is a lot of available biodiversity data from areas of low disturbance and conflict that can be used together with modeling like that described in my talk that can contribute to achieving conservation priorities and strategies like 30 x 30. One of the most useful applications of species habitat models is to guide field inventory efforts that are designed to test those extrapolations that are part of the modeling process.

Anonymous

How much weight is placed on habitat connectivity in your habitat suitability and areas of biodiversity importance?

The Map of Biodiversity Importance does not take connectivity into account – but it is a valuable input layer to connectivity analyses for the lower 48 states.

Anonymous

Indigenous communities were the original stewards of this land we need to listen to them and their knowledge. How are we bringing them and their knowledge in? (edited)

The commenter is absolutely right that indigenous knowledge is invaluable. Cycles of life and culture developed around indigenous understanding of what species were found where and when, which determined access to food and medicines, firewood, housing materials, and textiles. Indigenous communities have much knowledge to contribute to ecological knowledge of imperiled species, ecological communities, and landscapes.

Anonymous

The migration of people to different areas has generated the destruction of nature, biodiversity, increment of pollution. The creation of neighborhoods has generated the destruction of forest around the world (Amazonas), what could be the solution to solve this?

The comment is absolutely correct that demand for land to support housing of human communities has displaced many parts of the natural world. This is one reason why it is important NOW to protect what is left and restore what is degraded, guided by the best available science.

Anonymous

is there MOBI maps/data for Canada, where can it be found, it would be a great tool for Canada's 30 by 30 

In Canada, there is a project that is similar to MoBI but for Canada’s species at-risk. It is called the Ecosystem-based automated range maps (EBAR) initiative. At somewhat coarser scales, it is developing publicly accessible range maps for priority species. These maps are then one of the important input layers to Canada’s ongoing assessment of its marine, terrestrial and freshwater Key Biodiversity Areas.

Anonymous

So glad you are discussing the endangered species of the Texas Hill Country- it is definitely something that needs more recognition! Thank you from Texas State University!

Indeed, one of the surprising results of our analysis in the Map of Biodiversity Importance (MoBI) project was just how important Texas is relative to most other states for imperiled species conservation, in every taxonomic groups we studied: vertebrates, plants, pollinators, and freshwater invertebrates. MoBI can help target conservation efforts on private lands, which is the vast majority of land ownership type in Texas.

Anonymous

How do we balance that environmental conditions have changed and will continue to. Making traditional ranges unsuitable. Can non-native species that are better suited to current and predicted conditions to increase biodiversity? Or identify current suitable areas to introduce stressed species?

Environmental conditions are always changing, and species and ecosystems in natural landscapes have mechanisms for adapting to those changes. Today, change may be happening more quickly than species ability to adapt. Questions about native vs non-native species management or identifying the most suitable habitat for imperiled species conservation actions requires the best available science on species taxonomy, distribution, and conservation status, which is the type of information NatureServe produces and shares.

Myra

Do you know if the Warbler's range extends into Mexico?

According to the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, the golden-cheeked warbler’s breeding grounds are entirely in Texas. It migrates through Mexico on the way to its overwintering ground in Central America.

Anonymous

Do you have a ref link for the warbler study? Please provide.

We do not have a link to a specific analysis of the golden cheeked warbler distribution. It was one of more than 2200 imperiled species for which we produced refined distribution maps for the MoBI project. This example is intended to demonstrate the potential uses of the distribution maps for management decisions.

Anonymous

Is there a comprehensive effort to share this information with Political forces? 

Yes. We currently have pilot projects that are applying both the products and the process of MoBI to various policies and management decisions for the Bureau of Land Management, the US Fish & Wildlife Service, and the Department of Defense.

Anonymous

These are useful analysis to figure out areas to currently protect if we expect things to stay the same in the environment but as ranges continue to shift for both flora and fauna with climate change in a non-linear and unpredictable fashion, how do you anticipate that we account for these shifts?

It is certainly true that climate change will have impacts on the distribution of imperiled species, and that our conservation strategies should accommodate species range shifts as much as possible. To do this, we need more and better scenarios assessing species potential responses to climate change. The cloud based modeling infrastructure that we built for MoBI can help generate useful forecasts of biodiversity response to climate change that can help inform adaptive conservation planning.

Anonymous

Do you use data from iNaturalist?

Our primary source of occurrence data is from NatureServe’s biodiversity information network. But we do supplement this data with highly vetted records from sources like iNaturalist, BISON, and GBIF.

Anonymous

How often you updating the MoBI dataset? Will you be increasing the resolution? Higher resolutions data would be helpful for more local conservation efforts.

We are working toward dynamic upgrades as the distribution information for any individual species improves. Eventually we will connect those via API to The Living Atlas so the maps will always represent the most up to date versions.

Terry Martin

Can you comment on the impact of IOT and sensors to help you automate the process of keeping the data up to date?

The sensor revolution is a hugely exciting development that will have many consequences for understanding species relationship to their environments. Species habitat models can help us identify the ecological drivers of species distributions, helping us to understand what variables we might measure to assess species responses to global change. 

Myra

How was this information derived? The City of San Diego has an adopted Multiple Species Conservation Plan & Multi-Habitat Planning Area w/management directives for species protection & conservation. Local agencies work together to protect, preserve and conserve species through regulatory compliance

Congratulations to the City of San Diego for its stakeholder-driven landscape conservation plan. It would be very interesting to overlay MoBI results for the area and see where there might be additional conservation value to priority areas. Much more information about how MoBI was derived can be found on our hub site.

Juan Carlos Rincon

Is there a study on endangered species in tropical forests and in the Amazon region?

There have been many studies over the years about the imperiled species of the Amazon region (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-03098-w; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2007.01758.x; https://escholarship.org/content/qt9qw3j2v2/qt9qw3j2v2_noSplash_11a25358fb8f3bfe9e4741121e35b923.pdf...). In general, data on the taxonomy and distribution of Amazon species is much more incomplete. Also, the environmental data on climate, topography, land cover and other predictors is much more coarse. But there are many science based conservation targets proposed for the Amazon. The areas indigenous people’s play a critical role in Amazon conservation.

Anonymous

Does ‘precisely’ focusing protection on smaller areas give up habitat that may actually be needed?

It is true that models can be wrong and can underpredict a species distribution, failing to identify areas that the species occurs and that could be needed for its protection. This is one reason the Model Review Tool that we have developed is so useful – it gathers information that can refine the model based on the knowledge of species experts.

Anonymous

when do you believe brazilian's will urge for questions relativity do biodiversity? 

Biodiversity is an enormous part of Brazil’s natural capitol. From coffee to hearts of palm to ecotourism, biodiversity is a key source of Brazil’s economic wealth. Through science, communication, and activism, Brazilians can demand the protection of their living resources into the future. There is a lot of intact nature left to save in Brazil and many success stories in tropical forest restoration, so there is reason to be positive and engaged.

Sergio

What do you think about Mexico? You know that Mexico represents a high target of biodiversity. If we think globally, Mexico should be studied and covered in your map as a only group in North America. Regards and excellent presentation.

Indeed Mexico is a megadiverse country, and one with a strong history of science based biodiversity conservation efforts, such as CONABIO. Unfortunately we did not have the species or the environmental data available to extend our imperiled species habitat modeling work into Mexico. There are several intergovernmental continental-scale conservation initiatives underway, including the Commission for Environmental Cooperation and the North American Wilderness and Protected Areas Committee.

Anonymous

Is the Total extent blue to red horizontal bar chart showing endangerment level (gay for unquantified) spatially represented in the bar length by total population of individuals within the species, or by percentage of all species (i.e. each species = 1)?

The blue to red horizontal bar chart describes the percent of species in each taxonomic group that are critically imperiled (G1), imperiled (G2), vulnerable (G3), apparently secure (G4), or secure (G5). It does not contain any spatial information. The width of each bar reflects the number of species in that group for which NatureServe has developed conservation status assessments.

Anonymous

Looks like your habitat suitablility threshold for the GC warbler is too low. It doesn't even include some of the high quality confirmed sightings.

We used the golden-cheeked warbler habitat models as an illustration of the value of refined distribution data for imperiled species. All MoBI models represent first-generation habitat models that should be refined for decisions regarding any individual species. The info shared by the commenter is exactly the type of data the Model Review Tool is built to capture. The strength of MoBI lies in its aggregate analysis across all 2216 imperiled species.

Anonymous

Thank you for the great presentation, Dr. Hamilton! Reflecting on 30 by 2030 concept actively discussed during the UC21, what is the vision for activization of the conservation initiatives in post-pandemic realities in the US, Canada and worldwide?

The pandemic has broadened the public’s support for and understanding of the value of intact natural communities. Conservation groups are pushing hard for science-based conservation of our most ecologically intact areas and proactive management of our most at-risk species. Data like that produced by MoBI can provide a scientific basis to more effectively achieve these goals.

Lisa Mccraw

How can I help or volunteer from Mississippi?

Are you a species expert that can review habitat models? Do you have advanced spatial analysis skills? We are open to consider qualified volunteers! Get in touch with me at healy_hamilton@natureserve.org

Sadie

30x30 requires global buy-in. Political and ecological boundaries are dissimilar. As a land owner, 30x30 may seem to mean “my fair share” caps at 30% - how can we help convey the importance of preservation that exceeds 30% of a nation/state/county/individual’s land?

You are right that in many places, 30 percent may not be the right target for land/water conservation. 30 percent is more of a slogan than an actual specific target – some places don’t have 30 percent left to conserve (think southeastern U.S. grasslands), and others probably need more than 30% conserved to maintain ecological function (think the Amazon basin). Many different values will factor in to our conservation decisions, but they should be informed by the best available science, which is a contribution we are trying to make with thew MoBI project.

[DawnWright]

[October 13] The Science Symposium recording is also now available on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNxPHJLFUI8.

[DawnWright · Accepted solution]

[October 13] The Science Symposium recording is now uploaded to YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNxPHJLFUI8.