Yes, we use secure services with SSL enabled. I'm connecting using the Primary Site Admin account, so I know it has permission to publish. But I will double check to make sure the ArcGIS Server services account has write permission to all the necessary folders.
I think you are on the right track about "allowed admin access by IP" located here:
https://servername:6443/arcgis/admin/security/config/update
I've seen another forum where this was the fix to publishing problems. We don't have fixed IPs on our PCs, but I will investigate what can be done.
yes, I've tried to create a service def file and create the map service through Manager. Same error messages. I'm connecting to a SQL Server database which is registered with ArcGIS Server - and the connection is validated. I've also tried copying the data to the server, same error messages.